Inflation and demography through time
Juselius, Mikael; Takáts, Előd (30.04.2021)
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Volyymi
128Numero
July
2021
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-202002181182Tiivistelmä
Demography accounts for a large share of low frequency inflation variation in 22 countries from 1870 to 2016. The dependent population (young and old) is associated with higher, and the working age population with lower inflation. The relationship is robust across different sub-samples and specifications, including dynamic Phillips curve settings, suggesting that it is not spurious. The observed pattern is broadly consistent with delayed monetary policy responses to demography-induced changes in the natural interest rate.
Julkaisuhuomautus
Published in BoF DP 8/2018.