In search of Fluctuations : Another Look at China's Incredibly Stable GDP Growth Rates

Abstract

China’s official real GDP growth has held surprisingly stable in recent years. As national GDP figures influence both policy analysis and political decisions, the GDP growth rate of the Chinese economy has also great international implications. Taking the nominal GDP growth and price index data as given and experimenting with alternative deflators, this paper attempts to track missing fluctuations in real GDP growth in recent years. Real GDP growth in the constructed series decreased in 2015–2016, picked up in 2017, and again decelerated in 2018, in contrast to the rather stable official real GDP growth rates of these years. Furthermore, in recent years the constructed growth rate seems to be well below the official figures.