Revisiting Russian war-time import substitution

Abstract

We examine recent developments and outcomes from Russia’s policies on import substitution and technological sovereignty utilizing official documents, statistical data, and company surveys. While Russian officials proclaim ambitious technological sovereignty targets, the reality is less impressive. Heavy investment in priority sectors in recent years has only delivered limited progress in import substitution, and output has in fact declined and import dependency increased in many industries. Russia remains highly dependent on imports of technological products, particularly sophisticated inputs and machinery.