Finland’s economic performance will be overshadowed by rising energy prices : March 2026 interim forecast

Abstract

The Finnish economy started to grow towards the end of 2025, and growth continued at the beginning of 2026. This growth is still modest, however, and the economic outlook is now weakened and clouded by the high uncertainty over the war in Iran. According to the Bank of Finland’s March 2026 interim forecast, Finland’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at a slower pace than the Bank had forecast in December 2025. The forecast is based on market assumptions that the rise in energy prices will remain relatively short-lived. The economic impact of even higher oil and raw material prices than in the baseline forecast is also examined within the framework of this interim forecast. The impact on consumer prices and economic growth will depend crucially on the duration of the conflict.