From sanctions to price surges : The dynamics of Russia’s import prices
Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli (21.11.2025)
Numero
8/2025Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2025
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe20251121109952Tiivistelmä
We examine impact of economic sanctions on Russian import prices using detailed data on other countries’ exports to Russia. We find that unit import prices of goods sanctioned by trading blocs such as the European Union have increased, often drastically, and even when imported to Russia from countries that have not formally imposed sanctions on Russia. For some countries, the unit export prices to Russia for non-sanctioned goods have also risen. These results strongly suggest that trade sanctions have been effective in limiting Russia’s access to sanctioned goods.
Julkaisuhuomautus
NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY
FOCUS
Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, many countries have imposed economic sanctions on Russia. A key aim of these sanctions has been to restrict Russia’s financial and technological capabilities for pursuing its war on Ukraine. An important tool has been the restriction of technology exports to Russia. Adding to the small body of studies on the impact of sanctions on the value of Russia’s imports, we examine whether sanctions have affected the import prices of sanctioned products in Russia.
CONTRIBUTION
The literature on the effects of trade sanctions on trade prices is still relatively new. We apply export data to examine the price effects to compare trends for exports to Russia against exports to other countries. We also control for the varying imposition times of sanctions and examine the temporal development of the price effect of sanctions.
FINDINGS
Our results suggest that the sanctions have led to a substantial increase in the import prices Russians pay for sanctioned products. The result applies both to a global aggregate of import providers, as well as key imports from specific countries, most notably China. The unit prices of sanctioned products exported to Russia have increased by 40–60 % (and sometimes more) compared to other exports. We also find that the price effect has strenghtened over time. Our results suggest that sanctions have limited Russia’s technological capabilities by making the importing of critical goods more expensive for Russia.
FOCUS
Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, many countries have imposed economic sanctions on Russia. A key aim of these sanctions has been to restrict Russia’s financial and technological capabilities for pursuing its war on Ukraine. An important tool has been the restriction of technology exports to Russia. Adding to the small body of studies on the impact of sanctions on the value of Russia’s imports, we examine whether sanctions have affected the import prices of sanctioned products in Russia.
CONTRIBUTION
The literature on the effects of trade sanctions on trade prices is still relatively new. We apply export data to examine the price effects to compare trends for exports to Russia against exports to other countries. We also control for the varying imposition times of sanctions and examine the temporal development of the price effect of sanctions.
FINDINGS
Our results suggest that the sanctions have led to a substantial increase in the import prices Russians pay for sanctioned products. The result applies both to a global aggregate of import providers, as well as key imports from specific countries, most notably China. The unit prices of sanctioned products exported to Russia have increased by 40–60 % (and sometimes more) compared to other exports. We also find that the price effect has strenghtened over time. Our results suggest that sanctions have limited Russia’s technological capabilities by making the importing of critical goods more expensive for Russia.