BOFIT Forecast for China 2025–2027 / 2

Abstract

Lifted by strong exports, China’s economy has grown slightly faster this year than our previous forecast anticipated. GDP growth has been slowing in recent months, however, and we expect the slowdown to continue throughout the 2025–2027 forecast period, and reaching a rate of around 3 % p.a. in 2027. The support from exports for economic growth will weaken, fixed investment growth will slow, and domestic consumption growth will be insufficient to maintain the current pace as the population ages and shrinks. There is no evidence that the government is forging ahead on the major structural reforms needed to accelerate growth. Given the large uncertainty surrounding China’s statistical data, we expect the gap between China’s reported and actual GDP growth rate to persist in coming years.