Macroeconomic model simulations suggest only minor impacts on the euro area from current US import tariffs

This brief presents impact assessments of increased tariffs based on simulations using the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) macroeconomic model. The current increases in US import tariffs are shown to reduce aggregate output across all major economic regions. The most pronounced negative effects in the simulations are observed in the United States and China. For the euro area, the estimated decline in aggregate output due to the currently implemented tariffs is around 0.2 percent — relatively modest. However, the final effects are subject to considerable uncertainty, including potential shifts in trade flows and the impact of trade barriers on investment. These estimates do not account for any additional uncertainty related to the future path of tariffs.