War has degraded Russia’s long term economic outlook and business environment

Abstract

Russia currently has one of the lowest projected long-term growth rates and one of the highest levels of country risk in the world. Indeed, only Belarus offers an equally lousy combination of growth and risk (Fig. 1). The situation would improve, of course, with an end to the war in Ukraine and a lifting of sanctions, but such improvement would only be modest without massive changes in Russia’s policy framework.