Drivers of Portfolio Flows into Chinese Debt Securities Amidst China's Bond Market Development

Abstract

The paper focuses on China’s onshore bond market and the drivers of non-resident net portfolio flows into Chinese debt securities. Following a review of China’s bond market, a simple theoretical model of push and pull factors driving bond flows is built. It represents a foundation for the empirical analysis on drivers of bond flows into China. Static and time-varying models are estimated to explain the importance of push and pull factors in China’s bond market. While China-specific pull factors, such as domestic economic growth and asset returns, are important drivers of flows, the results reveal that global push factors, such as US interest rates and risk aversion, have recently gained significance as drivers of flows into China. The results confirm China’s continued bond market deepening and integration with the rest of the world, which may have financial stability implications. Therefore, increased awareness regarding bond market developments in China is warranted.