Finnish economy would recover more rapidly if exports and consumption pick up

Abstract

At the turning points of business cycles, economic recovery has often turned out to be faster than forecast. According to the Bank of Finland’s June 2024 forecast, the economy will make a gradual recovery from the recession. The alternative scenario examines factors that could cause the economy to recover more quickly from 2025 onwards than in the baseline forecast. This could happen if consumer confidence recovers more quickly than expected and households spend more of their savings. Higher export growth than anticipated would also boost growth in the economy.