BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2024–2026 / 1
(25.03.2024)
Numero
1/2024Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2024
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2024032112385Tiivistelmä
Russia’s positive 2023 economic growth defied predictions. Growth in the capital stock and private consumption were both higher than expected. Part of the significant growth in the capital stock reflects soaring defence industry investment, as well as companies stocking up for uncertain times ahead and preparing for dwindling availability of components. The rapid growth in private consumption last year partly reflects the low reference basis of 2022 and substantial wage hikes. With Russia already experiencing severe capacity constraints, growth this year is expected to decelerate. Russian economic growth in the years ahead will remain subdued and fuelled mostly by government spending. Russia’s long-term potential growth rate, in particular, has been reduced by the shift to a wartime economy.
Julkaisuhuomautus
Published also in Finnish by the name BOFIT Venäjä-ennuste.