The shift in Russian trade during a year of war
Simola, Heli (26.04.2023)
Numero
9/2023Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2023
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2023042638857Tiivistelmä
This note examines changes in Russia’s foreign trade during the past year. We discuss general trends in Russia’s trade based on estimates constructed from mirror statistics and developments in EU Russia trade. The detailed analysis of Russia’s technology imports includes a selection of goods subject to EU export restrictions. We find substantial fluctuations in Russia’s trade flows and changes in its geographical structure. EU trade with Russia has generally declined substantially and Russia is not an important export market for most EU countries. Our findings suggest that Russia has been unable to find viable substitutes for many EU imports at the aggregate level and most individual technology goods subject to EU export restrictions. Other countries have stepped into the breach and increased their exports to Russia, and in the case of certain products, their exports even exceed the comparable imports lost from the EU.
Sisällysluettelo
Abstract 3
1. Introduction 4
2. Russia’s foreign trade developments 4
2.1 Russian goods imports declined sharply in 2022 4
2.2 Value of Russian goods exports reached a record high in 2022 5
3. EU trade with Russia has collapsed 6
3.1 EU exports to Russia fall to historical lows 6
3.2 EU imports from Russia turned to decline in 2022 8
4. Russian imports of technology and sanctioned goods dropped sharply 10
4.1 Analyzing trade flows of sanctioned goods is very complicated 10
4.2 Russia has generally failed to find substitutes for EU sanctioned goods 11
5. Concluding remarks 13
References 14
1. Introduction 4
2. Russia’s foreign trade developments 4
2.1 Russian goods imports declined sharply in 2022 4
2.2 Value of Russian goods exports reached a record high in 2022 5
3. EU trade with Russia has collapsed 6
3.1 EU exports to Russia fall to historical lows 6
3.2 EU imports from Russia turned to decline in 2022 8
4. Russian imports of technology and sanctioned goods dropped sharply 10
4.1 Analyzing trade flows of sanctioned goods is very complicated 10
4.2 Russia has generally failed to find substitutes for EU sanctioned goods 11
5. Concluding remarks 13
References 14