Alternative scenario : Recovery in global economy delayed

Uncertainty in the global economy poses a substantial risk to the Finnish growth outlook. In 2019, growth in the main export markets has been slower than previously expected, and uncertainty factors may cause further slower-than-expected developments. If materialised, the risks would particularly affect the exports of a small open economy such as Finland. This alternative scenario analyses the transmission of a temporary dip in Finnish export demand to different segments of the economy. The alternative scenario has been prepared using the Bank of Finland’s dynamic general equilibrium model Aino.