Growth continues, outlook more moderate

Abstract

The outlook for global economic growth has moderated from the spring. Growth in international trade has decelerated. Confidence in the economic outlook remains fairly strong, but trade tensions, in particular, are a downside risk to growth. Global economic growth will slow if protectionist measures expand and uncertainty leads to postponement of investment. In the worst case, increased import tariffs will cause global growth to dampen considerably. Due to the complex nature of global supply chains, protectionist measures may have unexpected and long-lasting consequences.