Bank of Finland Bulletin : Economic outlook

Preface 3
Bank of Finland forecasts 5
Executive summary 6
Economic outlook 9
Recent developments 9
Box 1. National accounts for the first quarter of 2014 12
Box 2. Deepening of Ukraine crisis would slow growth 13
Operating environment 15
Non-financial corporations 21
Box 3. Product structure of Finnish exports becomes less
favourable 23
Box 4. Investment recovering only slowly 25
Households 27
GDP and employment 28
Box 5. Total factor productivity and R&D expenditure growing more slowly 31
Public finances 34
Box 6. Impact assessment of the government decision on spending limits 37
External balance 39
Wage and price trends 41
Box 7. The rise in average wages and weak productivity developments have pushed up inflation 43
Risk assessment 45
Box 8. Alternative scenario: financial tightening would lower GDP growth significantly 47
Changes from the previous forecasts 49

Large worker flows in the Finnish economy 51
Heidi Schauman - Juuso Vanhala - Matti Virén

From Finnish Great Depression to Great Recession 65
Adam Gulan - Markus Haavio - Juha Kilponen

Articles and boxes from previous publications 72
Forecast tables T1