Bank of Finland Bulletin : Economic outlook

Abstract

Preface 3

Bank of Finland forecasts 5

Executive summary 6

Economic outlook 9 Recent developments 9 Box 1. National accounts for the third quarter of 2013 11 Box 2. Employment effects of structural change in manufacturing sector 12 Operating environment 14 Non-financial corporations 20 Households 22 GDP and employment 23 Box 3. Weak economic trend reflected more in employment than unemployment 25 Public finances 28 Box 4. Finland's public finances 30 External balance 36 Wage and price trends 37 Box 5. Outlook for Finland's cost-competitiveness 40 Risk assessment 42 Box 6. Alternative scenario: improved corporate profitability 44

Changes from the previous forecast 47

Financial stability 49

Structural reforms in the economy and fiscal sustainability Helvi Kinnunen - Petri Mäki-Fränti - Jukka Railavo 67

Articles and boxes from previous publications 79

Forecast tables T1