Bank of Finland Bulletin : Economic outlook

Abstract

Preface 3

Bank of Finland forecasts 5

Executive summary 6

Economic outlook 9 Recent developments 9 Box 1. National accounts for the first quarter of 2013 12 Operating environment 13 Non-financial corporations 20 Box 2. Geographical and product structures of Finnish goods exports have changed 23 Households 26 GDP and employment 27 Box 3. Demographic factors obscuring the picture of labour supply 30 Public finances 32 Box 4. Composition of Finland's public debt 36 External balance 39 Box 5. Foreign trade statistics based on value added reallocate country-specific trade surpluses and deficit 41 Wage and price trends 45 Box 6. Finnish inflation above euro area average 47 Risk assessment 49 Box 7. Alternative scenario: Demand in export markets picks up at the same time as conditions for corporate investment improve 53

Changes from the previous forecasts 58

Labour supply and population cohorts: impact of the business cycle on labour market attachment Helvi Kinnunen - Petri Mäki-Fränti 61

Sector-specific labour cost developments from the perspective of the industrial sector's cost structure Jarkko Kivistö 71

Articles and boxes 81

Forecast tables T1