Bank of Finland Bulletin : Economic outlook

Abstract

Preface 3

Bank of Finland forecasts 5

Executive summary 6

Economic outlook 9 Recent developments 9 Box 1. National Accounts for the first quarter of 2012 11 Operating environment 12 Non-financial corporations 19 Box 2. Finnish services exports still narrowly based 21 Households 25 GDP and employment 27 Box 3. Productivity developments reflect sectoral, structural and cyclical factors 30 Public finances 33 External balance 36 Box 4. Current account decline based on several factors 37 Wage and price trends 39 Risk assessment 42 Box 5. Alternative scenario: Households strengthen their financial position by adjusting demand 43 Changes from the previous forecast 47

An assessment of housing price developments against various measures Jarkko Kivistö 49

Market share of Finnish goods exports contracted sharply since 2000 Seppo Orjasniemi - Terhi Ravaska 59

Long-term growth forecast for the Finnish economy Helvi Kinnunen - Petri Mäki-Fränti - Elisa Newby - Seppo Orjasniemi - Jukka Railavo 69

Articles and boxes from previous publications 79

Forecast tables T1