Bank of Finland bulletin : Economic outlook : Special issue
(14.10.2010)
Numero
2Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2010
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201408074441Tiivistelmä
PREFACE 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6
FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 12
FINANCIAL MARKETS 14
Interest rates 14
Exchange rates 15
Stock markets 16
Loan markets 17
Housing market 18
Box 1. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 20
Box 2. Financial market disturbances and developments in the real economy in Finland 22
Box 3. Household debt 24
SUPPLY 27
Output 27
Employment and labour force 28
Productivity and capital 31
Box 4. Unemployment rate reacted less than expected to drop in output 33
Box 5. Structural realignment in the Finnish economy 35
DEMAND 38
Consumption 39
General government 41
Investment 43
Export markets and export prices 45
Foreign trade 46
Current account and debt 48
Box 6. Finland's public finances 51
Box 7. Global economy and external demand 54
Box 8. Foreign trade in services narrowly based 56
Box 9. Russia and the global oil market 60
COSTS AND PRICES 62
Labour costs 62
Commodity prices 63
Import prices and domestic producer prices 64
Consumer prices 66
Box 10. Inflation differentials in the euro area 68
RISK ASSESSMENT 70
International economy 70
Domestic economy 71
Alternative scenario: a decline in confidence in Finland's ability to manage its public finances 73
Box 11. Short-term inflation risks 76
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 71
ARTICLES AND BOXES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 79
FORECAST TABLES T1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6
FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 12
FINANCIAL MARKETS 14
Interest rates 14
Exchange rates 15
Stock markets 16
Loan markets 17
Housing market 18
Box 1. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 20
Box 2. Financial market disturbances and developments in the real economy in Finland 22
Box 3. Household debt 24
SUPPLY 27
Output 27
Employment and labour force 28
Productivity and capital 31
Box 4. Unemployment rate reacted less than expected to drop in output 33
Box 5. Structural realignment in the Finnish economy 35
DEMAND 38
Consumption 39
General government 41
Investment 43
Export markets and export prices 45
Foreign trade 46
Current account and debt 48
Box 6. Finland's public finances 51
Box 7. Global economy and external demand 54
Box 8. Foreign trade in services narrowly based 56
Box 9. Russia and the global oil market 60
COSTS AND PRICES 62
Labour costs 62
Commodity prices 63
Import prices and domestic producer prices 64
Consumer prices 66
Box 10. Inflation differentials in the euro area 68
RISK ASSESSMENT 70
International economy 70
Domestic economy 71
Alternative scenario: a decline in confidence in Finland's ability to manage its public finances 73
Box 11. Short-term inflation risks 76
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 71
ARTICLES AND BOXES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 79
FORECAST TABLES T1