Bank of Finland bulletin : Economic outlook : Special issue
(19.09.2008)
Numero
2Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2008
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201408074439Tiivistelmä
PREFACE 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5
FINANCIAL MARKETS 11
Interest rates 11
Exchange rates 13
Stock markets 14
Housing prices 15
Financial position of households and the corporate sector 16
Box 1. Forecast assumptions 1 8
Box 2. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 20
Box 3. Earnings development in different industrial sectors in Finland 21
SUPPLY 25
Output 25
Employment and labour force 26
Productivity and capital 29
Box 4. Long-term labour force outlook 30
DEMAND 33
Private consumption 34
General government 35
Investment 37
World economy and external demand 39
Export markets and export prices 41
Foreign trade 43
Current account 45
Box 5. Recent developments in foreign trade in services 46
Box 6. General government funds and the costs of population ageing 48
COSTS AND PRICES 51
Labour costs 51
Raw material prices 53
Import prices 54
Domestic producer prices 55
Consumer prices 56
Box 7. Recent developments in oil markets 59
Box 8. Food prices in Finland 61
Box 9. Inflation and relative prices in Finland 63
RISK ASSESSMENT 65
International economy 65
Domestic economy 67
Alternative scenario: a deepening prices and wages spiral 69
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 73
ARTICLES AND BOLES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 76
Forecast tables T1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5
FINANCIAL MARKETS 11
Interest rates 11
Exchange rates 13
Stock markets 14
Housing prices 15
Financial position of households and the corporate sector 16
Box 1. Forecast assumptions 1 8
Box 2. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 20
Box 3. Earnings development in different industrial sectors in Finland 21
SUPPLY 25
Output 25
Employment and labour force 26
Productivity and capital 29
Box 4. Long-term labour force outlook 30
DEMAND 33
Private consumption 34
General government 35
Investment 37
World economy and external demand 39
Export markets and export prices 41
Foreign trade 43
Current account 45
Box 5. Recent developments in foreign trade in services 46
Box 6. General government funds and the costs of population ageing 48
COSTS AND PRICES 51
Labour costs 51
Raw material prices 53
Import prices 54
Domestic producer prices 55
Consumer prices 56
Box 7. Recent developments in oil markets 59
Box 8. Food prices in Finland 61
Box 9. Inflation and relative prices in Finland 63
RISK ASSESSMENT 65
International economy 65
Domestic economy 67
Alternative scenario: a deepening prices and wages spiral 69
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 73
ARTICLES AND BOLES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 76
Forecast tables T1