Bank of Finland bulletin : Economic outlook : Special issue
(16.10.2009)
Numero
2Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2009
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201408074437Tiivistelmä
PREFACE 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6
FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 11
FINANCIAL MARKETS 13
Interest rates 13
Exchange rates 14
Stock markets 16
Bank lending market 17
Housing market 19
Box 1. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 21
Box 2. Are global trade imbalances subsiding 23
Box 3. Finnish government borrowing 25
SUPPLY 27
Output 27
Employment and labour force 29
Productivity and capital 30
Box 4. Bad news on the labour market 32
DEMAND 34
Consumption 35
General government 37
Investment 40
Export markets and export prices 41
Foreign trade 43
Current account and level of debt 45
Box 5. Global economy and foreign demand 47
Box 6. How does the present recession compare with the 1990s? 49
Box 7. Why did Finland's exports collapse? 51
COSTS AND PRICES 54
Labour costs 54
Commodity prices 55
Import prices and domestic producer prices 56
Consumer prices 58
Box 8. Service prices 61
RISK ASSESSMENT 63
International economy 63
Domestic economy 65
Alternative scenario: restructuring of the export sector 67
Box 9. Short-term inflation risks 71
Box 10. The economic and financial crises and forecasting 72
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 75
ARTICLES AND BOXES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 77
Forecast tables T1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6
FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 11
FINANCIAL MARKETS 13
Interest rates 13
Exchange rates 14
Stock markets 16
Bank lending market 17
Housing market 19
Box 1. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 21
Box 2. Are global trade imbalances subsiding 23
Box 3. Finnish government borrowing 25
SUPPLY 27
Output 27
Employment and labour force 29
Productivity and capital 30
Box 4. Bad news on the labour market 32
DEMAND 34
Consumption 35
General government 37
Investment 40
Export markets and export prices 41
Foreign trade 43
Current account and level of debt 45
Box 5. Global economy and foreign demand 47
Box 6. How does the present recession compare with the 1990s? 49
Box 7. Why did Finland's exports collapse? 51
COSTS AND PRICES 54
Labour costs 54
Commodity prices 55
Import prices and domestic producer prices 56
Consumer prices 58
Box 8. Service prices 61
RISK ASSESSMENT 63
International economy 63
Domestic economy 65
Alternative scenario: restructuring of the export sector 67
Box 9. Short-term inflation risks 71
Box 10. The economic and financial crises and forecasting 72
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 75
ARTICLES AND BOXES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 77
Forecast tables T1