Bank of Finland bulletin : Economic outlook : Special issue
(23.03.2009)
Numero
1Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2009
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201408074436Tiivistelmä
PREFACE 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6
FINANCIAL MARKETS 11
Interest rates 11
Exchange rates 13
Stock markets 14
Housing market 16
Financial position of households and the corporate sector 17
Box 1. Forecast assumptions 19
Box 2. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 21
Box 3. Impact of the financial market crisis on the real economy 23
SUPPLY 25
Output 25
Employment and labour force 26
Productivity and capital 28
Box 4. Effects of recession on potential output 30
Box 5. Effects of population ageing on labour productivity 32
DEMAND 34
Consumption 35
General government 36
Investment 38
World economy and external demand 40
Export markets and export prices 42
Foreign trade 44
Current account 46
Box 6. Consumption behaviour in a time of financial market turbulence 48
Box 7. Fiscal stimulus measures in EU countries 50
Box 8. The effectiveness of fiscal policy 52
Box 9. World trade shock and goods exports by sector 56
Box 10. Finland's important trading partners Russia and China weighed down by the crisis 59
COSTS AND PRICES 61
Labour costs 61
Commodity prices 62
Import prices and domestic producer prices 64
Consumer prices 66
Box 11. Base effect on inflation in 2009 69
Box 12. Are industrial economies facing the threat of deflation? 71
RISK ASSESSMENT 73
International economy 73
Domestic economy 74
Alternative scenario: expansionary economic policy proves effective 76
Box 13. Short-term inflation risks 80
CHANGES FROM THE SEPTEMBER 2008 FORECAST 73
ARTICLES AND BOXES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 76
Forecast tables T1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6
FINANCIAL MARKETS 11
Interest rates 11
Exchange rates 13
Stock markets 14
Housing market 16
Financial position of households and the corporate sector 17
Box 1. Forecast assumptions 19
Box 2. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 21
Box 3. Impact of the financial market crisis on the real economy 23
SUPPLY 25
Output 25
Employment and labour force 26
Productivity and capital 28
Box 4. Effects of recession on potential output 30
Box 5. Effects of population ageing on labour productivity 32
DEMAND 34
Consumption 35
General government 36
Investment 38
World economy and external demand 40
Export markets and export prices 42
Foreign trade 44
Current account 46
Box 6. Consumption behaviour in a time of financial market turbulence 48
Box 7. Fiscal stimulus measures in EU countries 50
Box 8. The effectiveness of fiscal policy 52
Box 9. World trade shock and goods exports by sector 56
Box 10. Finland's important trading partners Russia and China weighed down by the crisis 59
COSTS AND PRICES 61
Labour costs 61
Commodity prices 62
Import prices and domestic producer prices 64
Consumer prices 66
Box 11. Base effect on inflation in 2009 69
Box 12. Are industrial economies facing the threat of deflation? 71
RISK ASSESSMENT 73
International economy 73
Domestic economy 74
Alternative scenario: expansionary economic policy proves effective 76
Box 13. Short-term inflation risks 80
CHANGES FROM THE SEPTEMBER 2008 FORECAST 73
ARTICLES AND BOXES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 76
Forecast tables T1