Government credit and trade war
Cai, Ning; Feng, Jinlu; Liu, Yong; Ru, Hong; Yang, Endong (23.04.2019)
Numero
7/2019Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2019
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201904251160Tiivistelmä
By merging transaction-level trade data from China Customs and loan data from the China Development Bank (CDB), we analyze the effects of government credit on trade activities. We find that CDB credit mainly flows to SOEs in strategic industries at the top of the supply chain. These up-stream loans lead to the lower price and higher amount of export goods of private firms in down-stream industries, which leads to decreases in employment and performance of the US firms in the same industry. In contrast, the US firms in downstream industries use cheaper intermediate goods imported from China and perform better subsequently.
Sisällysluettelo
Abstract..4
I Introduction..5
II Institution background..9
III Data, variables, and summary statistics..11
A China customs data and Chinese industry census data..11
B CDB loan data and politician profile data..12
C Data on US firms..14
D Summary statistics..14
IV Empirical analyses and results..16
A CDB loans and export..16
B Causal effects of CDB loans on exports..19
C Impact on US firms..25
V Conclusion..31
References..32
Appendix..35
I Introduction..5
II Institution background..9
III Data, variables, and summary statistics..11
A China customs data and Chinese industry census data..11
B CDB loan data and politician profile data..12
C Data on US firms..14
D Summary statistics..14
IV Empirical analyses and results..16
A CDB loans and export..16
B Causal effects of CDB loans on exports..19
C Impact on US firms..25
V Conclusion..31
References..32
Appendix..35