Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress : Assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events
Lo Luca, Marco; Peltonen, Tuomas (04.04.2011)
Numero
2/2011Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2011
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201408072104Tiivistelmä
This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of stand alone. and composite indicators in predicting systemic events and evaluate them by taking into account policy makers f preferences between false alarms and missing signals. Our results highlight the importance of considering jointly various indicators in a multiva-riate framework. We find that taking into account jointly domestic and global macro-financial vul-nerabilities greatly improves the performance of discrete choice models in forecasting systemic events. Our framework shows a good out-of-sample performance in predicting the last financial cri-sis. Finally, our model would have issued an early warning signal for the United States in 2006Q2, 5 quarters before the emergence of money markets tensions in August 2007. JEL Codes: E44, E58, F01, F37, G01 Avaisanat: Early warning indicators, asset price booms and busts, financial stress, macro-prudential policies
Julkaisuhuomautus
Published in Journal of Banking and Finance, Volume 37, Issue 7, July 2013, Pages 2183-2195 as Assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events