Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets
Ponomarenko, Alexey (02.10.2012)
JulkaisusarjaBOFIT Discussion Papers
JulkaisijaBank of Finland
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite onhttps://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201408072001
We apply recently developed early warning indicators systems to a cross-section of emerging markets. We find that, with little or no modification, models designed to predict asset price booms/busts in advanced countries may be useful for emerging markets. The concept of monitoring a set of asset prices, real activity (especially investment) and financial (especially credit) indicators is generally found to be efficacious. Keywords: early warning indicators, asset prices, emerging markets JEL classification: E37, E44, E51.
Published in Emerging Markets Review 15, 92–106 (2013)