Measuring the long-term perception of monetary policy and the term structure
Rautureau, Nicolas (15.06.2004)
Numero
12/2004Julkaisija
Suomen Pankki
2004
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-20140807457Tiivistelmä
This paper has two objectives.The first is to identify the long-term public perception of monetary policy.The second is to identify the relationship between this perception and long-term bond rates.For German data, the use of a two-factor model of the term structure results in the best forecast of long-term interest rates for the period between January 1975 and January 2003.It also allows us to introduce as the second factor the long-term perception of inflation as a characteristic of the behaviour of monetary authorities.Key words: expectations hypothesis, monetary policy, changepoints JEL classification numbers: E43