Entrepreneurial optimism and survival

Abstract

This paper uses entrepreneurs´ survival expectations around the time of market entry and subsequent venture exits to study entrepreneurial optimism. Using data on a large number of nascent entrepreneurs in the US and start-ups in Finland, we find that new entrepreneurs´ survival beliefs are on average optimistic but heterogeneous: Some are excessively optimistic, whereas a small subset holds unbiased beliefs. Entrepreneurial optimism is increasing in the relative (interpersonal) optimism and de- creasing in entrepreneurs´ level of education and industry experience in both countries. At least in Finland, those holding optimistic views are more likely to transit into entrepreneurship. JEL: D21, L20 Key words: entrepreneurship, survival, optimism, overestimation