Haku

The relative performance of forecasting models changes over time. This empirical observation raises two questions: is the relative performance itself predictable? If so, can it be exploited to improve forecast accuracy? ...

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates forecasts from time- and frequency-domain models. Frequency-domain models excel at capturing long-term trends ...

Inflation dynamics reflect forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to longterm structural trends. We introduce the sum-of-the-cycles (SOC) method, which exploits this multifrequency structure of ...