Haku

This paper studies the formation of inflation expectations in the euro area. We first analyse the forecast accuracy of ECB inflation projections relative to private sector forecasts. Then, using the ECB Survey of Professional ...

This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel ...

This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point forecasts and ...

Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample ...

This study investigates the role of media tone on inflation expectations. Examining the relationships between news and the inflation expectations of various U.S demographic groupings, we find that traditional news influences ...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank’s inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated ...