Haku

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates forecasts from time- and frequency-domain models. Frequency-domain models excel at capturing long-term trends ...

Inflation dynamics reflect forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to longterm structural trends. We introduce the sum-of-the-cycles (SOC) method, which exploits this multifrequency structure of ...

This study investigates the role of media tone on inflation expectations. Examining the relationships between news and the inflation expectations of various U.S demographic groupings, we find that traditional news influences ...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank’s inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated ...