Haku

We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, ...

Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample ...

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation ...

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates forecasts from time- and frequency-domain models. Frequency-domain models excel at capturing long-term trends ...

Inflation dynamics reflect forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to longterm structural trends. We introduce the sum-of-the-cycles (SOC) method, which exploits this multifrequency structure of ...

This study investigates the role of media tone on inflation expectations. Examining the relationships between news and the inflation expectations of various U.S demographic groupings, we find that traditional news influences ...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank’s inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated ...