Haku

Stagnation as the new norm and fiscal policy are examined in a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning determining expectations. We impose inflation and consumption lower bounds, which can be relevant when agents are ...

This paper studies the formation of inflation expectations in the euro area. We first analyse the forecast accuracy of ECB inflation projections relative to private sector forecasts. Then, using the ECB Survey of Professional ...

Inflation depends on both monetary and fiscal policies and on how agents believe that these policies will evolve in the future. Can monetary policy control inflation, when both monetary and fiscal policies are allowed to ...

This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel ...

Using a novel approach based on micro-level survey responses, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations estimates in the European Commission Consumer Survey. We identify the share of consumers, whose ...

This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point forecasts and ...

We use administrative and survey-based micro data to study the relationship between cognitive abilities (IQ), the formation of economic expectations, and the choices of a representative male population. Men above the median ...

We estimate the U.S. New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the time-frequency domain with continuous wavelet tools, to provide an integrated answer to the three most controversial issues on the Phillips Curve. (1) Has the short-run ...