Haku
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The Aino 3.0 model
(26.05.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2020
In this paper we present Aino 3.0, the latest vintage of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used at the Bank of Finland for policy analysis. Aino 3.0 is a small-open economy DSGE model at the intersection ...
When uncertainty decouples expected and unexpected losses
(26.01.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2022
A parsimonious extension of a well-known portfolio credit-risk model allows us to study a salient stylized fact – abrupt switches between high- and low-loss phases– from a risk-management perspective. As uncertainty about ...
Forecasting expected and unexpected losses
(21.12.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie “unexpected losses.” This leads us to develop a ...
Long-term debt propagation and real reversals
(18.04.2023)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2023
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2023
We examine a propagation mechanism that arises from households’ long-term borrowing and show empirically that it has sizable real effects. The mechanism recognises that when there is long-term debt, an impulse to new ...
Who funds zombie firms : banks or non-banks?
(09.02.2023)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2023
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2023
Analyses of zombie firms have emphasised the role of bank financing as the reason for zombie survival. This conclusion was made despite no comparative analysis of the sources of external finance for zombie firms. This paper ...
Central bank collateral policy and credit pricing : evidence from Finland
(15.07.2024)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2024
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2024
We study the effect of collateral eligibility of corporate loans on the pricing of these loans by banks in Finland. Specifically, we investigate whether loans that are pledgeable as collateral for central bank borrowing ...
Heterogeneous responses to monetary policy : the role of floating rate loans
(26.08.2025)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2025
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2025
This study examines the floating rate channel—a mechanism through which monetary policy affects firms’ investment and credit demand based on their exposure to variable rate loans. Using a granular loan-level dataset from ...
Effect of the countercyclical capital buffer on firm loans : Evidence from Germany
(27.08.2025)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2025
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2025
We use confidential loan-level data from the European Central Bank to investigate how changes in the countercyclical capital buffer requirement in Germany affect lending to firms. We find evidence showing that tightening ...
Estate owners' ensemble : Mapping commercial real estate concentration using Finnish firm ownership
(09.12.2025)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2025
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2025
The commercial real estate (CRE) market is an important source of financial stability risks, yet ownership structures remain opaque. This paper uses comprehensive Finnish register data to construct firm-level ownership ...








