Haku

Stagnation as the new norm and fiscal policy are examined in a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning determining expectations. We impose inflation and consumption lower bounds, which can be relevant when agents are ...

This paper studies the formation of inflation expectations in the euro area. We first analyse the forecast accuracy of ECB inflation projections relative to private sector forecasts. Then, using the ECB Survey of Professional ...

Inflation depends on both monetary and fiscal policies and on how agents believe that these policies will evolve in the future. Can monetary policy control inflation, when both monetary and fiscal policies are allowed to ...

This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel ...

I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks do not universally behave like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty ...

We evaluate and compare alternative monetary policy rules, namely average inflation targeting, price level targeting, and traditional inflation targeting rules, in a standard New Keynesian model that features recurring, ...

Using a novel approach based on micro-level survey responses, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations estimates in the European Commission Consumer Survey. We identify the share of consumers, whose ...

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation expectations affect both inflation and output,and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect ...

This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point forecasts and ...

The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the ...