Haku

This paper studies the formation of inflation expectations in the euro area. We first analyse the forecast accuracy of ECB inflation projections relative to private sector forecasts. Then, using the ECB Survey of Professional ...

We show that the out-of-sample forecast of the equity risk premium can be signi ficantly improved by taking into account the frequency-domain relationship between the equity risk premium and several potential predictors. ...

This study provides estimates of the real effects of macro-uncertainty de- composed into fundamental and overconfidence bias components. Crucially, overconfidence biases lower ex-ante measures of uncertainty, while ...