Haku

Unit root methods have long been used in detection of financial bubbles in asset prices. The basic idea is that fundamental changes in the autocorrelation structure of relevant time series imply the presence of a rational ...

We revisit the empirical performance of the Q theory of investment, explicitly taking into account the frequency dependence of investment, Tobin’s Q, and cash flow. The time series are decomposed into orthogonal components ...

The aim of this study is to explore budget planning in the euro area countries in 2004-2014. Our analyses are based on annual real-time data from the IMF World Economic Outlook publications. As forecasts made by different ...

This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel ...

This paper presents Aino 2.0 – the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model currently used at the Bank of Finland for forecasting and policy analysis. The paper provides a detailed theoretical description of the ...

We generalize the Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) sum-of-the-parts method for forecasting stock market returns. Rather than summing the parts of stock returns, we suggest summing some of the frequency-decomposed parts. The ...