Haku

We apply textual analysis to extract the tone (sentiment) from the introductory statements to the ECB’s press conferences regarding economic outlook. By combining this information with Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic ...

I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks are not universally like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty ...

Using the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, this paper investigates revisions of medium-term inflation expectations. We provide robust evidence that consumers adjust medium-term inflation views in response to changes in ...

We estimate the ECB’s monetary policy reaction function by using real time Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection data, which are presented to the ECB’s Governing Council when it assesses the monetary policy stance ...

We study asymmetric inflation effects of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area during the period of low nominal interest rates. We find that rate cuts are inflationary also during low interest ...

Barsky and Sims (2012, AER) demonstrated, via indirect inference, that confidence innovations can be viewed as noisy signals about medium-term economic growth. They highlighted that the connection between confidence and ...

Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample ...

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation ...

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates forecasts from time- and frequency-domain models. Frequency-domain models excel at capturing long-term trends ...

We show that sacrifice ratios associated with announcements of the most likely course of monetary policy are lower when the implementation date is further out into the future in the basic New Keynesian framework. This ...