Haku

We investigate how the business, credit and interest rate cycles affect the monetary transmission mechanism, using state-dependent local projection methods and data from 18 advanced economies. We exploit the time-series ...

It is widely recognized that the policy objectives of fiscal and monetary policymakers usually have different time horizons, and this feature may not be captured by traditional econometric techniques. In this paper, we ...

Using a novel approach based on micro-level survey responses, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations estimates in the European Commission Consumer Survey. We identify the share of consumers, whose ...

How long is the long run in the relationship between money growth and inflation? How important are high inflation episodes for the unit slope finding in the quantity theory of money? To answer these questions we study the ...

I calibrate switching cost for the Finnish retail deposit market by using the approach developed by Oz Shy (2002). It turns out that switching costs faced by deposit customers of the main banks are high, ranging from 200 ...

We consider predicting systemic financial crises one to five years ahead using recurrent neural networks. The prediction performance is evaluated with the Jorda-Schularick-Taylor dataset, which includes the crisis dates ...

Overconfidence and overextrapolation are two behavioral biases that are pervasive in human thinking. A long line of research documents that such biases influence business decisions by distorting managers' expected productivity. ...

I provide a measure of household uncertainty available for European Union (EU) countries. The measure draws from the same consumer survey data used to construct widely-used consumer sentiment indices. I find that increases ...

The paper re-examines whether the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Inflation by estimating a sticky-price model with positive trend inflation, commodity price shocks and sluggish ...

This paper analyses the procyclicality of euro area total factor productivity and its role in business cycle amplification by estimating a medium-scale DSGE model with endogenous productivity mechanism on euro area data. ...