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The life and death of zombies – evidence from government subsidies to firms
(14.05.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2020
We analyze the demographics of zombie firms and durations of zombie spells as well as their determinants, including an application on public subsidies using firm level population panel data from Finland. Firm-level analysis ...
Forecasting inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips curve : Frequency matters
(21.04.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020
We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation ...
Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium
(27.04.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2020
Any time series can be decomposed into cyclical components fluctuating at different frequencies. Accordingly, in this paper we propose a method to forecast the stock market's equity premium which exploits the frequency ...
The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy : identification through the yield curve
(22.01.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2020
Since the Great Recession, the main evolution in monetary policy has been its attempts to affect the medium and the long-term interest rates with instruments other than the policy rate. Consequently, measuring the stance ...
The scarring effects of deep contractions
(03.10.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2022
We find that deep contractions have highly persistent scarring effects, depressing the level of GDP at least a decade hence. Drawing on a panel of 24 advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to the present, we show that ...
Bond convenience curves and funding costs
(28.09.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2022
A convenience yield represents a difference between yield on a safe bond and yield on a synthetic safe bond, constructed by combining a risky bond with a CDS contract. We explain the shapes of eurozone sovereign convenience ...
The Aino 3.0 model
(26.05.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2020
In this paper we present Aino 3.0, the latest vintage of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used at the Bank of Finland for policy analysis. Aino 3.0 is a small-open economy DSGE model at the intersection ...
Staged equity financing
(26.08.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2020
We propose a rationale for why firms often return to the equity market shortly after their initial public offering (IPO). We argue that hard to value firms conduct smaller IPOs, and that they return to the equity market ...
What should the inflation target be? Views from 600 economists
(09.05.2022)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2022
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2022
The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: a State dependent analysis
(29.04.2021)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021
We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, ...