Haku

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates forecasts from time- and frequency-domain models. Frequency-domain models excel at capturing long-term trends ...

Properties of average inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge and learning have been studied only for the Rotemberg NK model, where price stickiness arises from adjustment costs in price setting. This note fills the ...

This paper studies price stability and debt sustainability when the real rate exceeds trend growth (r > g) in a New Keynesian model with endogenous technology growth through R&D. Endogenous growth constitutes a self-financing ...

We study the evolution of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy since July 2021, following the adoption of a new strategy and amid a period of volatile inflation. Utilizing text analysis, we assess changes in ...

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of two recent major geopolitical events on the euro area economy, namely, the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To take into account the heterogeneity ...

Inflation dynamics reflect forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to longterm structural trends. We introduce the sum-of-the-cycles (SOC) method, which exploits this multifrequency structure of ...

This study investigates the role of media tone on inflation expectations. Examining the relationships between news and the inflation expectations of various U.S demographic groupings, we find that traditional news influences ...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank’s inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated ...