Cash data of for the central government : Time series analysis

Abstract

This paper examines the applicability of cash data as short-term indicators on the developments of the central government finances. Cash based revenue and expenditure items and reclassified to comply with the classification of annual SNA figures and the annual fiscal forecasts.The statistical properties of the data series are analysed using structural time series analysis.The models are used to forecast short-term developments of four revenue items and of five expenditure items.Also some tentative monthly estimates for the general government balance is presented.The analysis demonstrates the volatile character of monthly cash series; in most cases trend components are insignificant.On the other hand seasonal variation is statistically significant for most of the analysed items.Estimated time series models produce quite plausible forecasts for the short-term developments of the central government income and expenditure items. Keywords: cash based data, short-term forecasts