A few observations on the monetary and exchange rate policies of transition economies

Abstract

This paper briefly examines the exchange rate arrangements of several of Eastern Europe's transition economies.Generally speaking, countries that have included some form of fixed exchange rate regime in their stabilization packages have been more successful in curbing inflation, and consequently reviving output. Further, while a fixed exchange rate is no panacea for economic problems, it can act as a credible nominal anchor in a comprehensive reform package.Such credibility, however, is contingent on the government's ability to implement a balanced budget. As transition progresses, fixed exchange rate regimes eventually become outmoded as they lack some of the flexibility and potency in conducting monetary policy central banks may require as the economy grows.To date, even the most advanced of the transition countries have balked at making this switch.A possible explanation may simply be inertia from past success of fixed exchange rates in reducing inflation and enhancing the credibility of such central banks.