BOFIT Forecast for China 2018–2020 / 2
JulkaisusarjaBOFIT Forecast for China
JulkaisijaBank of Finland
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite onhttps://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201810042071
China’s economic growth is slowing and the outlook has become more uncertain with the country’s rising indebtedness and turbulence from trade policy disputes with the United States. The country’s adherence to a GDP growth target further complicates economic policy as the stimulus needed to meet that target conflicts with government efforts to manage China’s burgeoning debt problems and to move ahead with economic reforms. Acknowledging that problems with China’ s statistical data make it hard to obtain a clear picture of economic conditions, we nevertheless hold to our earlier forecast that Chinese economic growth remains strong despite slowing to around 5 % p.a. in 2020, the final year in this forecast period. While China possesses resources to deal with many of the challenges it may encounter, the deterioration of economic conditions means that it is important to prepare also for a steeper slowdown in China’s growth than predicted in our baseline forecast.
Published also in Finnish by the name BOFIT Kiina-ennuste