BOFIT Forecast for China 2017-2019 / 1

Abstract

Official Chinese figures show that GDP growth was last year 6.7 % p.a., which is slightly less than in 2015. The trend largely follows our forecast from last September. As before, GDP growth is expected to slow to around 6 % this year and around 5 % in 2018 and 2019. The basic outlook for the forecast period is quite positive as growth should remain robust and the slowdown appears under control. This requires, however, improved discipline with regards to rising debt and more determined implementation of reform policies than we observe now. The government’s strict adherence to a 6.5 % GDP growth target distorts economic policy and encourages data manipulation to an extent that it may already be an issue.