BOFIT Forecast for China 2010-2012

Although its GDP growth slowed substantially in the turbulance of the international financial crisis, China successfully implemented a package of stimulation measures to achieve nearly 9% growth last year. Robust (9%) growth is expected to continue in 2010 and 2011, and a slight slow down, to 8%, is projected for 2012. In the course of the forecast period, China's economic performance will come to depend increasingly on domestic consumption demand. The rapid growth of credit associated with the stimulation package has lowered the quality of commercial banks' loan portfolios and increased inflation pressure, which will complicate the conduct of economic policy during the forecast period.