BOFIT Forecast for China 2013-2015 / 2

The slowing of China's economy in the first half of 2013 was more than anticipated, but our long-term assessment for slowing Chinese economic growth holds. We expect GDP growth of around 7.5% p.a. this year and around 7% p.a. in 2014 and 2015. China's lower growth reflects structural adjustments. The current pace of economic growth is still fast enough that there seems to be no need for large-scale monetary or fiscal stimulus policies, particularly as stimulus measures are in any case constrained by the high debt levels of local administrations and many businesses. As regards economic reforms, China's new leaders seem to be delivering on their promises.