BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2012-2014 / 1

Last year, both the Russian economy and imports continued their recovery from deep recession. For all of 2011, GDP was up 4.3 % and imports climbed over a fifth, and by late 2011, Russian economic output and imports had recovered to their 2008 pre-crisis peaks. Economic growth of around 3.5 % p.a. is expected throughout our 2012?2014 forecast period. Imports should still rise at around 7% p.a. Growth in private consumption and investment are expected to dip slightly this year in reaction to international and domestic uncertainties, but then recover in 2013. Growth of the economy is likely to slow towards the end of the forecast period if the oil price does not rise (a slight drop is anticipated). Increases in Russia's export volume should be quite slow as growth in export volumes of oil and petroleum products are expected to remain flat or decline slightly.