BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2011-2013

This year, the Russian economy has grown more slowly and imports recovered front-loaded at a more accelerated rate than forecast. GDP growth expectations have been scaled down, in particular for this year. The economy is expected to grow fairly briskly during the forecast period and imports to increase rapidly, although the growth rate of both is expected to slow. GDP growth is predicted to slow from below 4.5% for 2011-2012 to below 4% in 2013, even if the oil price is assumed to decrease only slightly in the forecast period. The demand growth in Russia continues to be directed strongly towards imports, which is expected to increase 20% this year and just below 10% for 2012-2013. For its part, this propensity to import is limiting GDP growth. GDP is expected to rise to the peak seen in the pre-crisis year of 2008 this autumn and imports to reach the respective peak in winter.