BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2009-2011

The growth forecast for Russia has been substantially scaled down since last autumn in the wake of a pronounced deterioration in the external environment. The crash in oil prices is markedly squeezing domestic incomes, and capital can no longer be obtained from the international markets. Growth in consumption is expected to fade and investment to decline markedly. Weak international demand is having a modest contractionary effect on export volumes. Import volume will decline much more dramatically, in line with the depreciation of the rouble and soft demand. Total output is projected to decline slightly this year and then to gradually recover in 2010 2011 as the world economy gains momentum.