Determinants of transit transports between the European Union and Russia

Abstract

The study makes an effort to elaborate the question, how Russian political, geopolitical and economic dependencies and aspirations may influence transit transport flows related to the trade between the European Union and Russia, and on Russian decisions to invest in transport infrastructures.The factors influencing on the choice of export transit transport corridors range from a number of long-term economic and geo-political security considerations of the Russian energy sector to a short-term needs to exert pressures to gain political benefits.Thus, three factors seem to have a major impact on the direction and volume the transit transport: 1) Russian national geo-strategic security considerations aiming at the maintenance of economic autarchy and spheres of interest, 2) the structure of trade between the European Union and Russia, and 3) the unwillingness of Russia to purchase from the new border republics transit transport services, available for free during the FSU era.Finally, the study contains statistics on the volumes and values of the transit transport flows between the European Union and Russia by commodity groups and by corridors (Ukraine-Slovakia, Poland-Belarus, Lithuania-Belarus, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland).